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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199905-199907

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
5
2
12
5
5
2
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
16
14
22
52
5
5
2
12
21
19
24
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
42
42
17
100
42
42
17
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
25
22
34
81
8
8
3
19
33
30
38
100

hitrate: 0.167 hitrate: 0.250
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 6.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.74 0.50
Heidke skill score: -0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.125
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.089
Kuipers skill score: -0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.125
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.093
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.167
threat score:
0.000 0.246 0.059
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.035 -0.085
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.737 0.083
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.833
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.731 0.833
samples: 12 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 18.75 %coverage: 100.00