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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199905-199907

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
3
2
7
2
3
2
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
19
16
22
57
2
3
2
7
21
19
24
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
29
43
29
100
29
43
29
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
30
25
34
89
3
5
3
11
33
30
38
100

hitrate: 0.286 hitrate: 0.281
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 3.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.00 0.29
Heidke skill score: -0.071 Heidke skill score: -0.078
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.035
Kuipers skill score: -0.071 Kuipers skill score: -0.078
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.036
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.286
threat score:
0.000 0.267 0.069
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.021 -0.024
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.842 0.083
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.714
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.719 0.714
samples: 7 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 10.94 %coverage: 100.00