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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199905-199907

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
2
3
0
5
3
3
0
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
19
16
24
59
2
3
0
5
21
19
24
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
17
0
0
17
33
50
0
83
50
50
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
30
25
38
92
3
5
0
8
33
30
38
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.250
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.33 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.11 0.21
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.125
true Heidke skill score: -0.091 true Heidke skill score: -0.076
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.125
true Kuipers skill score: -0.167 true Kuipers skill score: -0.080
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.258 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.143 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.034 -0.069
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.842 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.729 1.000
samples: 6 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 9.38 %coverage: 100.00