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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199905-199907

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
2
0
2
0
2
1
3
0
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
21
17
24
62
0
2
0
2
21
19
24
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
25
25
0
50
0
50
0
50
25
75
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
33
27
38
97
0
3
0
3
33
30
38
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.266
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.67 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.26 0.08
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: -0.102
true Heidke skill score: -0.200 true Heidke skill score: -0.048
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: -0.102
true Kuipers skill score: -0.333 true Kuipers skill score: -0.051
threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.266 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.200 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.031 -0.030
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.895 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.726 1.000
samples: 4 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 6.25 %coverage: 100.00