CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199906-199908

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
1
4
7
12
6
8
2
16
8
12
9
29

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
7
15
25
47
6
8
2
16
14
23
27
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
0
3
3
14
24
41
21
28
7
55
28
41
31
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
11
23
39
73
9
13
3
25
22
36
42
100

hitrate: 0.241 hitrate: 0.281
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.12 1.00 1.78
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.07 2.04 0.59
Heidke skill score: -0.138 Heidke skill score: -0.078
true Heidke skill score: -0.171 true Heidke skill score: -0.146
Kuipers skill score: -0.138 Kuipers skill score: -0.078
true Kuipers skill score: -0.168 true Kuipers skill score: -0.142
threat score:
0.125 0.200 0.087
threat score:
0.071 0.273 0.049
equitable threat score:
0.094 -0.064 -0.164
equitable threat score:
0.057 -0.050 -0.139
probability of detection:
0.125 0.333 0.222
probability of detection:
0.071 0.652 0.074
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.667 0.875
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.681 0.875
samples: 29 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 45.31 %coverage: 100.00