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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199906-199908

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
2
7
9
7
8
2
17
7
10
9
26

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
15
25
47
7
8
2
17
14
23
27
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
8
27
35
27
31
8
65
27
38
35
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
11
23
39
73
11
13
3
27
22
36
42
100

hitrate: 0.154 hitrate: 0.266
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.90 1.89
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.04 0.63
Heidke skill score: -0.269 Heidke skill score: -0.102
true Heidke skill score: -0.321 true Heidke skill score: -0.177
Kuipers skill score: -0.269 Kuipers skill score: -0.102
true Kuipers skill score: -0.312 true Kuipers skill score: -0.171
threat score:
0.000 0.118 0.083
threat score:
0.000 0.273 0.048
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.108 -0.214
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.050 -0.148
probability of detection:
0.000 0.200 0.222
probability of detection:
0.000 0.652 0.074
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.778 0.882
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.681 0.882
samples: 26 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 40.62 %coverage: 100.00