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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199906-199908

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
6
8
0
2
3
5
1
2
1
4
1
6
10
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
6
8
13
19
20
52
1
2
1
4
14
23
27
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
12
35
47
0
12
18
29
6
12
6
24
6
35
59
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
9
13
20
30
31
81
2
3
2
6
22
36
42
100

hitrate: 0.176 hitrate: 0.312
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
8.00 0.83 0.40
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.57 2.26 0.15
Heidke skill score: -0.235 Heidke skill score: -0.031
true Heidke skill score: -0.128 true Heidke skill score: -0.051
Kuipers skill score: -0.235 Kuipers skill score: -0.031
true Kuipers skill score: -0.178 true Kuipers skill score: -0.051
threat score:
0.000 0.222 0.077
threat score:
0.000 0.339 0.033
equitable threat score:
-0.055 0.033 -0.127
equitable threat score:
-0.086 0.008 -0.024
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 0.100
probability of detection:
0.000 0.826 0.037
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.600 0.750
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.635 0.750
samples: 17 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 26.56 %coverage: 100.00