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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199906-199908

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
6
7
0
2
1
3
1
0
1
2
1
3
8
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
6
7
13
22
20
55
1
0
1
2
14
23
27
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
8
50
58
0
17
8
25
8
0
8
17
8
25
67
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
9
11
20
34
31
86
2
0
2
3
22
36
42
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.359
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
7.00 1.00 0.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 2.39 0.07
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: 0.039
true Heidke skill score: 0.036 true Heidke skill score: 0.021
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: 0.039
true Kuipers skill score: 0.057 true Kuipers skill score: 0.021
threat score:
0.000 0.500 0.111
threat score:
0.000 0.393 0.036
equitable threat score:
-0.079 0.385 -0.043
equitable threat score:
-0.079 0.062 0.006
probability of detection:
0.000 0.667 0.125
probability of detection:
0.000 0.957 0.037
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.333 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.600 0.500
samples: 12 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 18.75 %coverage: 100.00