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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199906-199908

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
6
7
14
0
1
0
1
1
0
0
1
2
7
7
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
6
7
14
12
17
20
49
1
0
0
1
14
23
27
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
38
44
88
0
6
0
6
6
0
0
6
13
44
44
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
9
11
22
19
27
31
77
2
0
0
2
22
36
42
100

hitrate: 0.125 hitrate: 0.281
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
7.00 0.14 0.14
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 2.13 0.04
Heidke skill score: -0.313 Heidke skill score: -0.078
true Heidke skill score: -0.047 true Heidke skill score: -0.072
Kuipers skill score: -0.313 Kuipers skill score: -0.078
true Kuipers skill score: -0.065 true Kuipers skill score: -0.075
threat score:
0.067 0.143 0.000
threat score:
0.037 0.309 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.057 0.086 -0.058
equitable threat score:
-0.086 -0.016 -0.015
probability of detection:
0.500 0.143 0.000
probability of detection:
0.071 0.739 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.929 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.929 0.653 1.000
samples: 16 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 25.00 %coverage: 100.00