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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199906-199908

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
3
8
0
0
3
3
1
0
1
2
1
5
7
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
3
8
13
18
23
54
1
0
1
2
14
23
27
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
38
23
62
0
0
23
23
8
0
8
15
8
38
54
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
8
5
13
20
28
36
84
2
0
2
3
22
36
42
100

hitrate: 0.077 hitrate: 0.297
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
8.00 0.60 0.29
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.57 2.35 0.07
Heidke skill score: -0.385 Heidke skill score: -0.055
true Heidke skill score: -0.182 true Heidke skill score: -0.071
Kuipers skill score: -0.385 Kuipers skill score: -0.055
true Kuipers skill score: -0.255 true Kuipers skill score: -0.073
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.125
threat score:
0.000 0.305 0.036
equitable threat score:
-0.073 -0.169 -0.011
equitable threat score:
-0.086 -0.036 0.006
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.143
probability of detection:
0.000 0.783 0.037
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.667 0.500
samples: 13 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 20.31 %coverage: 100.00