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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199906-199908

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
2
1
2
1
4
1
4
1
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
13
21
26
60
1
2
1
4
14
23
27
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
33
0
33
17
33
17
67
17
67
17
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
20
33
41
94
2
3
2
6
22
36
42
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.344
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.50 4.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.61 0.15
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.016
true Heidke skill score: 0.250 true Heidke skill score: -0.031
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.016
true Kuipers skill score: 0.333 true Kuipers skill score: -0.030
threat score:
0.000 0.500 0.250
threat score:
0.000 0.339 0.033
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.100
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.014 -0.024
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.913 0.037
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.750
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.650 0.750
samples: 6 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 9.38 %coverage: 100.00