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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199907-199909

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
7
8
15
0
1
1
2
3
9
0
12
3
17
9
29

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
7
8
15
9
16
12
37
3
9
0
12
12
32
20
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
24
28
52
0
3
3
7
10
31
0
41
10
59
31
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
11
13
23
14
25
19
58
5
14
0
19
19
50
31
100

hitrate: 0.034 hitrate: 0.250
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
5.00 0.12 1.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.25 1.16 0.60
Heidke skill score: -0.448 Heidke skill score: -0.125
true Heidke skill score: -0.242 true Heidke skill score: -0.233
Kuipers skill score: -0.448 Kuipers skill score: -0.125
true Kuipers skill score: -0.342 true Kuipers skill score: -0.229
threat score:
0.000 0.056 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.302 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.094 -0.010 -0.216
equitable threat score:
-0.116 -0.072 -0.133
probability of detection:
0.000 0.059 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.500 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.568 1.000
samples: 29 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 45.31 %coverage: 100.00