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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199907-199909

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
7
7
14
0
2
1
3
4
8
0
12
4
17
8
29

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
7
7
14
8
17
13
38
4
8
0
12
12
32
20
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
24
24
48
0
7
3
10
14
28
0
41
14
59
28
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
11
11
22
13
27
20
59
6
13
0
19
19
50
31
100

hitrate: 0.069 hitrate: 0.266
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.50 0.18 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.17 1.19 0.60
Heidke skill score: -0.397 Heidke skill score: -0.102
true Heidke skill score: -0.227 true Heidke skill score: -0.217
Kuipers skill score: -0.397 Kuipers skill score: -0.102
true Kuipers skill score: -0.307 true Kuipers skill score: -0.212
threat score:
0.000 0.111 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.321 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.120 0.015 -0.198
equitable threat score:
-0.112 -0.059 -0.133
probability of detection:
0.000 0.118 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.531 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.333 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.553 1.000
samples: 29 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 45.31 %coverage: 100.00