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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199907-199909

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
7
11
18
0
0
0
0
1
8
0
9
1
15
11
27

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
7
11
18
11
17
9
37
1
8
0
9
12
32
20
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
26
41
67
0
0
0
0
4
30
0
33
4
56
41
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
11
17
28
17
27
14
58
2
13
0
14
19
50
31
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.266
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
18.00 0.00 0.82
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 1.16 0.45
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.102
true Heidke skill score: -0.191 true Heidke skill score: -0.196
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.102
true Kuipers skill score: -0.306 true Kuipers skill score: -0.195
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.327 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.036 0.000 -0.224
equitable threat score:
-0.127 -0.045 -0.107
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.531 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.541 1.000
samples: 27 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 42.19 %coverage: 100.00