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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199907-199909

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
8
12
0
0
0
0
1
7
0
8
1
11
8
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
8
12
11
21
12
44
1
7
0
8
12
32
20
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
20
40
60
0
0
0
0
5
35
0
40
5
55
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
6
13
19
17
33
19
69
2
11
0
13
19
50
31
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.328
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
12.00 0.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 1.38 0.40
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.008
true Heidke skill score: -0.235 true Heidke skill score: -0.154
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.008
true Kuipers skill score: -0.355 true Kuipers skill score: -0.146
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.382 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.048 0.000 -0.250
equitable threat score:
-0.103 -0.030 -0.098
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.656 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.523 1.000
samples: 20 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 31.25 %coverage: 100.00