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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199907-199909

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
0
1
0
1
1
4
0
5
1
5
1
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
11
28
19
58
1
4
0
5
12
32
20
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
14
14
0
14
0
14
14
57
0
71
14
71
14
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
17
44
30
91
2
6
0
8
19
50
31
100

hitrate: 0.143 hitrate: 0.438
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.20 5.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.08 1.81 0.25
Heidke skill score: -0.286 Heidke skill score: 0.156
true Heidke skill score: -0.105 true Heidke skill score: -0.083
Kuipers skill score: -0.286 Kuipers skill score: 0.156
true Kuipers skill score: -0.182 true Kuipers skill score: -0.070
threat score:
0.000 0.200 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.452 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.077 0.067 -0.135
equitable threat score:
-0.015 -0.030 -0.067
probability of detection:
0.000 0.200 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.875 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.517 1.000
samples: 7 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 10.94 %coverage: 100.00