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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199907-199909

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
0
4
0
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
12
30
20
62
0
2
0
2
12
32
20
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
50
0
50
0
50
0
50
0
100
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
19
47
31
97
0
3
0
3
19
50
31
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.469
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.50 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.94 0.10
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.203
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.050
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.203
true Kuipers skill score: nan true Kuipers skill score: -0.041
threat score:
0.000 0.500 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.469 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.030 -0.029
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.938 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.516 1.000
samples: 4 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 6.25 %coverage: 100.00