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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199908-199910

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
3
3
2
8
1
0
5
6
4
4
8
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
12
31
13
56
1
0
5
6
13
32
19
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
6
6
13
19
19
13
50
6
0
31
38
25
25
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
3
19
48
20
88
2
0
8
9
20
50
30
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.562
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 2.00 0.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.15 1.75 0.32
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.344
true Heidke skill score: 0.238 true Heidke skill score: 0.172
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.344
true Kuipers skill score: 0.250 true Kuipers skill score: 0.146
threat score:
0.000 0.333 0.556
threat score:
0.000 0.544 0.250
equitable threat score:
-0.091 0.143 0.333
equitable threat score:
-0.028 0.103 0.177
probability of detection:
0.000 0.750 0.625
probability of detection:
0.000 0.969 0.263
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.625 0.167
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.446 0.167
samples: 16 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 25.00 %coverage: 100.00