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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199908-199910

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
4
1
0
1
2
1
1
5
7
2
3
8
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
4
12
29
12
53
1
1
5
7
13
32
19
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
15
15
31
8
0
8
15
8
8
38
54
15
23
62
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
3
6
19
45
19
83
2
2
8
11
20
50
30
100

hitrate: 0.385 hitrate: 0.531
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 0.67 0.88
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.31 1.66 0.37
Heidke skill score: 0.077 Heidke skill score: 0.297
true Heidke skill score: -0.051 true Heidke skill score: 0.133
Kuipers skill score: 0.077 Kuipers skill score: 0.297
true Kuipers skill score: -0.054 true Kuipers skill score: 0.116
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.518 0.238
equitable threat score:
-0.114 -0.102 0.122
equitable threat score:
-0.050 0.085 0.154
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.625
probability of detection:
0.000 0.906 0.263
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.286
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.453 0.286
samples: 13 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 20.31 %coverage: 100.00