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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199908-199910

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
0
1
1
2
1
1
5
7
1
3
7
11

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
12
30
13
55
1
1
5
7
13
32
19
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
9
9
18
0
9
9
18
9
9
45
64
9
27
64
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
3
19
47
20
86
2
2
8
11
20
50
30
100

hitrate: 0.545 hitrate: 0.547
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 0.67 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.15 1.72 0.37
Heidke skill score: 0.318 Heidke skill score: 0.320
true Heidke skill score: 0.141 true Heidke skill score: 0.147
Kuipers skill score: 0.318 Kuipers skill score: 0.320
true Kuipers skill score: 0.145 true Kuipers skill score: 0.126
threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.556
threat score:
0.000 0.526 0.238
equitable threat score:
-0.065 0.132 0.120
equitable threat score:
-0.028 0.085 0.154
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 0.714
probability of detection:
0.000 0.938 0.263
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.500 0.286
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.455 0.286
samples: 11 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 17.19 %coverage: 100.00