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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199908-199910

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
3
1
1
4
6
1
3
7
11

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
12
30
14
56
1
1
4
6
13
32
19
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
9
9
18
0
9
18
27
9
9
36
55
9
27
64
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
3
19
47
22
88
2
2
6
9
20
50
30
100

hitrate: 0.455 hitrate: 0.531
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 1.00 0.86
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.15 1.75 0.32
Heidke skill score: 0.182 Heidke skill score: 0.297
true Heidke skill score: 0.029 true Heidke skill score: 0.113
Kuipers skill score: 0.182 Kuipers skill score: 0.297
true Kuipers skill score: 0.032 true Kuipers skill score: 0.096
threat score:
0.000 0.200 0.444
threat score:
0.000 0.517 0.190
equitable threat score:
-0.065 0.043 0.035
equitable threat score:
-0.028 0.067 0.115
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 0.571
probability of detection:
0.000 0.938 0.211
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.667 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.464 0.333
samples: 11 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 17.19 %coverage: 100.00