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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199908-199910

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
4
1
0
1
2
2
3
4
9
3
5
7
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
4
11
27
13
51
2
3
4
9
13
32
19
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
13
13
27
7
0
7
13
13
20
27
60
20
33
47
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
3
6
17
42
20
80
3
5
6
14
20
50
30
100

hitrate: 0.267 hitrate: 0.484
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.33 0.40 1.29
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.31 1.59 0.47
Heidke skill score: -0.100 Heidke skill score: 0.227
true Heidke skill score: -0.179 true Heidke skill score: 0.058
Kuipers skill score: -0.100 Kuipers skill score: 0.227
true Kuipers skill score: -0.176 true Kuipers skill score: 0.051
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.000 0.482 0.167
equitable threat score:
-0.129 -0.105 -0.026
equitable threat score:
-0.050 0.049 0.062
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.571
probability of detection:
0.000 0.844 0.211
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.556
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.471 0.556
samples: 15 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 23.44 %coverage: 100.00