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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199908-199910

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
1
0
3
1
3
7
11
3
4
7
14

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
12
29
12
53
1
3
7
11
13
32
19
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
14
7
0
21
7
21
50
79
21
29
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
19
45
19
83
2
5
11
17
20
50
30
100

hitrate: 0.571 hitrate: 0.562
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.75 1.57
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.66 0.58
Heidke skill score: 0.357 Heidke skill score: 0.344
true Heidke skill score: 0.215 true Heidke skill score: 0.182
Kuipers skill score: 0.357 Kuipers skill score: 0.344
true Kuipers skill score: 0.189 true Kuipers skill score: 0.157
threat score:
0.000 0.167 0.636
threat score:
0.000 0.518 0.304
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.028 0.273
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.085 0.189
probability of detection:
0.000 0.250 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.906 0.368
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.667 0.364
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.453 0.364
samples: 14 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 21.88 %coverage: 100.00