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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199908-199910

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
1
1
2
0
1
5
6
0
3
6
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
13
30
14
57
0
1
5
6
13
32
19
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
11
0
11
0
11
11
22
0
11
56
67
0
33
67
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
20
47
22
89
0
2
8
9
20
50
30
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.547
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.67 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.08 1.78 0.32
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.320
true Heidke skill score: 0.308 true Heidke skill score: 0.135
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.320
true Kuipers skill score: 0.333 true Kuipers skill score: 0.114
threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.714
threat score:
0.000 0.508 0.250
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.100 0.333
equitable threat score:
-0.015 0.049 0.177
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 0.833
probability of detection:
0.000 0.938 0.263
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.500 0.167
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.474 0.167
samples: 9 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 14.06 %coverage: 100.00