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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199908-199910

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
1
2
3
0
2
4
6
0
3
6
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
13
30
15
58
0
2
4
6
13
32
19
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
11
22
33
0
22
44
67
0
33
67
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
20
47
23
91
0
3
6
9
20
50
30
100

hitrate: 0.556 hitrate: 0.531
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.81 0.32
Heidke skill score: 0.333 Heidke skill score: 0.297
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.097
Kuipers skill score: 0.333 Kuipers skill score: 0.297
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.081
threat score:
0.000 0.200 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.500 0.190
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.032 0.115
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 0.667
probability of detection:
0.000 0.938 0.211
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.667 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.483 0.333
samples: 9 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 14.06 %coverage: 100.00