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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200001-200003

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
0
2
0
2
0
0
28
28
0
2
29
31

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
0
6
30
36
0
0
28
28
0
6
59
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
0
6
0
6
0
0
90
90
0
6
94
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
0
9
46
55
0
0
43
43
0
9
91
100

hitrate: 0.968 hitrate: 0.523
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.00 0.97
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 6.00 0.47
Heidke skill score: 0.952 Heidke skill score: 0.285
true Heidke skill score: 0.786 true Heidke skill score: 0.145
Kuipers skill score: 0.952 Kuipers skill score: 0.285
true Kuipers skill score: 0.983 true Kuipers skill score: 0.483
threat score:
0.000 1.000 0.966
threat score:
0.000 0.167 0.475
equitable threat score:
0.000 1.000 0.644
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.082 0.077
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.966
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.475
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.833 0.000
samples: 31 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 47.69 %coverage: 100.00