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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200001-200003

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
0
2
1
3
0
2
27
29
0
4
30
34

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
0
7
70
77
0
2
27
29
0
9
99
108

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
6
6
0
6
3
9
0
6
79
85
0
12
88
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
0
6
65
71
0
2
25
27
0
8
92
100

hitrate: 0.853 hitrate: 0.315
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.75 0.97
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 8.56 0.29
Heidke skill score: 0.779 Heidke skill score: -0.028
true Heidke skill score: 0.380 true Heidke skill score: 0.013
Kuipers skill score: 0.779 Kuipers skill score: -0.028
true Kuipers skill score: 0.433 true Kuipers skill score: 0.061
threat score:
0.000 0.400 0.844
threat score:
0.000 0.089 0.267
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.354 0.220
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.008 0.006
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 0.900
probability of detection:
0.000 0.778 0.273
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.333 0.069
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.909 0.069
samples: 34 out of 108 samples: 108 out of 108
%coverage: 31.48 %coverage: 100.00