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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200001-200003

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
0
30
30
0
2
30
32

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
5
29
34
0
0
30
30
0
6
59
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
0
3
0
3
0
3
0
0
94
94
0
6
94
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
0
8
45
52
0
0
46
46
0
9
91
100

hitrate: 0.969 hitrate: 0.538
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.50 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 5.67 0.51
Heidke skill score: 0.953 Heidke skill score: 0.308
true Heidke skill score: 0.738 true Heidke skill score: 0.134
Kuipers skill score: 0.953 Kuipers skill score: 0.308
true Kuipers skill score: 0.750 true Kuipers skill score: 0.425
threat score:
0.000 0.500 1.000
threat score:
0.000 0.143 0.508
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.484 1.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.058 0.087
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.833 0.508
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.853 0.000
samples: 32 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 49.23 %coverage: 100.00