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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200001-200003

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
4
0
1
3
4
0
0
33
33
0
3
38
41

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
4
0
4
24
28
0
0
33
33
0
6
59
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
5
10
0
2
7
10
0
0
80
80
0
7
93
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
3
6
0
6
37
43
0
0
51
51
0
9
91
100

hitrate: 0.829 hitrate: 0.569
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.33 0.87
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 4.67 0.56
Heidke skill score: 0.744 Heidke skill score: 0.354
true Heidke skill score: 0.308 true Heidke skill score: 0.137
Kuipers skill score: 0.744 Kuipers skill score: 0.354
true Kuipers skill score: 0.561 true Kuipers skill score: 0.410
threat score:
0.000 0.167 0.868
threat score:
0.000 0.133 0.559
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.124 0.326
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.052 0.105
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 0.868
probability of detection:
0.000 0.667 0.559
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.750 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.857 0.000
samples: 41 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 63.08 %coverage: 100.00