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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200002-200004

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
7
10
0
0
2
2
0
1
11
12
0
4
20
24

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
7
10
0
1
42
43
0
1
11
12
0
5
60
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
13
29
42
0
0
8
8
0
4
46
50
0
17
83
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
11
15
0
2
65
66
0
2
17
18
0
8
92
100

hitrate: 0.458 hitrate: 0.185
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.50 0.60
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 8.60 0.20
Heidke skill score: 0.188 Heidke skill score: -0.223
true Heidke skill score: 0.049 true Heidke skill score: -0.047
Kuipers skill score: 0.188 Kuipers skill score: -0.223
true Kuipers skill score: 0.100 true Kuipers skill score: -0.258
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.524
threat score:
0.000 0.021 0.180
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.059 0.091
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.053 -0.002
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.550
probability of detection:
0.000 0.200 0.183
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.083
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.977 0.083
samples: 24 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 36.92 %coverage: 100.00