CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 200002-200004

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
0
1
10
11
0
1
2
3
0
3
13
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
0
3
57
60
0
1
2
3
0
5
60
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
6
6
13
0
6
63
69
0
6
13
19
0
19
81
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
3
0
5
88
92
0
2
3
5
0
8
92
100

hitrate: 0.188 hitrate: 0.077
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 3.67 0.23
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 12.00 0.05
Heidke skill score: -0.219 Heidke skill score: -0.385
true Heidke skill score: -0.130 true Heidke skill score: -0.041
Kuipers skill score: -0.219 Kuipers skill score: -0.385
true Kuipers skill score: -0.308 true Kuipers skill score: -0.258
threat score:
0.000 0.077 0.143
threat score:
0.000 0.048 0.033
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.097 -0.038
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.028 -0.013
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 0.154
probability of detection:
0.000 0.600 0.033
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.909 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.950 0.333
samples: 16 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 24.62 %coverage: 100.00