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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200003-200005

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
11
12
0
0
1
1
0
0
8
8
0
1
20
21

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
11
12
0
3
43
46
0
0
8
8
0
4
62
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
52
57
0
0
5
5
0
0
38
38
0
5
95
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
17
18
0
5
65
70
0
0
12
12
0
6
94
100

hitrate: 0.381 hitrate: 0.167
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.00 0.40
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 11.50 0.13
Heidke skill score: 0.071 Heidke skill score: -0.250
true Heidke skill score: 0.025 true Heidke skill score: 0.013
Kuipers skill score: 0.071 Kuipers skill score: -0.250
true Kuipers skill score: 0.175 true Kuipers skill score: 0.093
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.400
threat score:
0.000 0.064 0.129
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.024 0.031
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.005 0.009
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.400
probability of detection:
0.000 0.750 0.129
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.935 0.000
samples: 21 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 31.82 %coverage: 100.00