CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 200003-200005

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
9
10
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
3
0
1
14
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
9
10
0
3
50
53
0
0
3
3
0
4
62
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
7
60
67
0
0
13
13
0
0
20
20
0
7
93
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
14
15
0
5
76
80
0
0
5
5
0
6
94
100

hitrate: 0.200 hitrate: 0.091
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 2.00 0.21
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 13.25 0.05
Heidke skill score: -0.200 Heidke skill score: -0.364
true Heidke skill score: 0.006 true Heidke skill score: -0.001
Kuipers skill score: -0.200 Kuipers skill score: -0.364
true Kuipers skill score: 0.036 true Kuipers skill score: -0.004
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.214
threat score:
0.000 0.056 0.048
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.047 0.018
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.004 0.003
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.214
probability of detection:
0.000 0.750 0.048
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.943 0.000
samples: 15 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 22.73 %coverage: 100.00