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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200003-200005

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
0
1
11
12
0
2
12
14
0
3
25
28

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
0
6
87
93
0
2
12
14
0
8
101
109

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
7
7
0
4
39
43
0
7
43
50
0
11
89
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
0
6
80
85
0
2
11
13
0
7
93
100

hitrate: 0.464 hitrate: 0.165
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 4.00 0.56
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 11.62 0.14
Heidke skill score: 0.196 Heidke skill score: -0.252
true Heidke skill score: -0.055 true Heidke skill score: -0.020
Kuipers skill score: 0.196 Kuipers skill score: -0.252
true Kuipers skill score: -0.147 true Kuipers skill score: -0.121
threat score:
0.000 0.071 0.444
threat score:
0.000 0.063 0.117
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.022 -0.034
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.009 -0.011
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 0.480
probability of detection:
0.000 0.750 0.119
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.917 0.143
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.935 0.143
samples: 28 out of 109 samples: 109 out of 109
%coverage: 25.69 %coverage: 100.00