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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200003-200005

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
12
13
0
1
12
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
3
50
53
0
1
12
13
0
4
62
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
8
92
100
0
8
92
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
5
76
80
0
2
18
20
0
6
94
100

hitrate: 0.923 hitrate: 0.227
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.08
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 13.25 0.21
Heidke skill score: 0.885 Heidke skill score: -0.159
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.008
Kuipers skill score: 0.885 Kuipers skill score: -0.159
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.056
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.923
threat score:
0.000 0.056 0.190
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.004 -0.004
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.750 0.194
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.077
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.943 0.077
samples: 13 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 19.70 %coverage: 100.00