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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200004-200006

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
5
5
0
1
8
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
4
30
25
59
0
0
5
5
4
31
31
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
11
11
22
0
0
22
22
0
0
56
56
0
11
89
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
3
6
45
38
89
0
0
8
8
6
47
47
100

hitrate: 0.556 hitrate: 0.530
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 2.00 0.62
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 1.90 0.16
Heidke skill score: 0.333 Heidke skill score: 0.295
true Heidke skill score: 0.077 true Heidke skill score: 0.135
Kuipers skill score: 0.333 Kuipers skill score: 0.295
true Kuipers skill score: 0.188 true Kuipers skill score: 0.132
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.625
threat score:
0.000 0.500 0.161
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.080 0.156
equitable threat score:
-0.021 0.071 0.093
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.625
probability of detection:
0.000 0.968 0.161
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.492 0.000
samples: 9 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 13.64 %coverage: 100.00