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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200004-200006

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
0
1
1
0
0
6
6
0
1
7
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
4
30
25
59
0
0
6
6
4
31
31
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
13
0
13
0
0
13
13
0
0
75
75
0
13
88
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
6
45
38
89
0
0
9
9
6
47
47
100

hitrate: 0.750 hitrate: 0.545
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.00 0.86
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.25 1.90 0.19
Heidke skill score: 0.625 Heidke skill score: 0.318
true Heidke skill score: 0.238 true Heidke skill score: 0.153
Kuipers skill score: 0.625 Kuipers skill score: 0.318
true Kuipers skill score: 0.357 true Kuipers skill score: 0.148
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.857
threat score:
0.000 0.500 0.194
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.067 0.429
equitable threat score:
-0.012 0.071 0.113
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.857
probability of detection:
0.000 0.968 0.194
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.492 0.000
samples: 8 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 12.12 %coverage: 100.00