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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200004-200006

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
3
0
1
3
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
4
30
28
62
0
0
3
3
4
31
31
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
25
0
25
0
0
0
0
0
0
75
75
0
25
75
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
6
45
42
94
0
0
5
5
6
47
47
100

hitrate: 0.750 hitrate: 0.500
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.25 2.00 0.10
Heidke skill score: 0.625 Heidke skill score: 0.250
true Heidke skill score: 0.429 true Heidke skill score: 0.068
Kuipers skill score: 0.625 Kuipers skill score: 0.250
true Kuipers skill score: 0.500 true Kuipers skill score: 0.066
threat score:
0.000 0.000 1.000
threat score:
0.000 0.476 0.097
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 1.000
equitable threat score:
-0.012 0.026 0.054
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.968 0.097
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.516 0.000
samples: 4 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 6.06 %coverage: 100.00