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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200005-200007

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
12
13
1
1
12
14

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
8
25
19
52
0
1
12
13
9
26
31
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
0
0
7
0
0
0
0
0
7
86
93
7
7
86
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
12
38
29
79
0
2
18
20
14
39
47
100

hitrate: 0.929 hitrate: 0.576
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.00 1.08
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.11 2.00 0.42
Heidke skill score: 0.893 Heidke skill score: 0.364
true Heidke skill score: 0.641 true Heidke skill score: 0.287
Kuipers skill score: 0.893 Kuipers skill score: 0.364
true Kuipers skill score: 0.500 true Kuipers skill score: 0.282
threat score:
1.000 0.000 0.923
threat score:
0.111 0.472 0.375
equitable threat score:
1.000 0.000 0.462
equitable threat score:
0.097 0.139 0.228
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.111 0.962 0.387
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.077
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.519 0.077
samples: 14 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 21.21 %coverage: 100.00