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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200005-200007

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
0
4
4
0
0
8
8
1
0
12
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
8
26
23
57
0
0
8
8
9
26
31
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
0
0
8
0
0
31
31
0
0
62
62
8
0
92
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
12
39
35
86
0
0
12
12
14
39
47
100

hitrate: 0.692 hitrate: 0.530
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 -- 0.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.11 2.19 0.26
Heidke skill score: 0.538 Heidke skill score: 0.295
true Heidke skill score: 0.278 true Heidke skill score: 0.218
Kuipers skill score: 0.538 Kuipers skill score: 0.295
true Kuipers skill score: 0.833 true Kuipers skill score: 0.216
threat score:
1.000 0.000 0.667
threat score:
0.111 0.456 0.258
equitable threat score:
1.000 0.000 0.133
equitable threat score:
0.097 0.103 0.156
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.667
probability of detection:
0.111 1.000 0.258
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.544 0.000
samples: 13 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 19.70 %coverage: 100.00