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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200005-200007

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
9
9
1
0
9
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
9
26
22
57
0
0
9
9
9
26
31
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
10
0
0
10
0
0
90
90
10
0
90
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
14
39
33
86
0
0
14
14
14
39
47
100

hitrate: 0.900 hitrate: 0.530
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 -- 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.19 0.29
Heidke skill score: 0.850 Heidke skill score: 0.295
true Heidke skill score: 0.474 true Heidke skill score: 0.212
Kuipers skill score: 0.850 Kuipers skill score: 0.295
true Kuipers skill score: 0.500 true Kuipers skill score: 0.208
threat score:
0.000 0.000 1.000
threat score:
0.000 0.456 0.290
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 1.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.103 0.178
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.290
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.544 0.000
samples: 10 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 15.15 %coverage: 100.00