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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200005-200007

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
0
1
5
6
1
0
1
2
2
1
7
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
16
40
49
105
1
0
1
2
18
40
51
109

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
0
10
20
0
10
50
60
10
0
10
20
20
10
70
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
15
37
45
96
1
0
1
2
17
37
47
100

hitrate: 0.300 hitrate: 0.385
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 6.00 0.29
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.11 2.62 0.04
Heidke skill score: -0.050 Heidke skill score: 0.078
true Heidke skill score: 0.079 true Heidke skill score: 0.032
Kuipers skill score: -0.050 Kuipers skill score: 0.078
true Kuipers skill score: 0.130 true Kuipers skill score: 0.033
threat score:
0.333 0.167 0.125
threat score:
0.053 0.381 0.019
equitable threat score:
0.231 0.074 -0.061
equitable threat score:
0.036 0.022 0.001
probability of detection:
0.500 1.000 0.143
probability of detection:
0.056 1.000 0.020
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.833 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.619 0.500
samples: 10 out of 109 samples: 109 out of 109
%coverage: 9.17 %coverage: 100.00