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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200006-200008

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
2
5
9
5
3
13
21
7
5
18
30

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
13
14
18
45
5
3
13
21
18
17
31
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
7
17
30
17
10
43
70
23
17
60
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
20
21
27
68
8
5
20
32
27
26
47
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.409
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.80 1.17
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.65 0.68
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.114
true Heidke skill score: 0.057 true Heidke skill score: 0.124
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.114
true Kuipers skill score: 0.054 true Kuipers skill score: 0.132
threat score:
0.000 0.167 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.292 0.333
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.048 0.030
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.066 0.108
probability of detection:
0.000 0.400 0.722
probability of detection:
0.000 0.824 0.419
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.778 0.381
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.689 0.381
samples: 30 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 45.45 %coverage: 100.00