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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200006-200008

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
1
7
10
5
4
11
20
7
5
18
30

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
13
13
20
46
5
4
11
20
18
17
31
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
3
23
33
17
13
37
67
23
17
60
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
20
20
30
70
8
6
17
30
27
26
47
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.364
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.00 1.11
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.71 0.65
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: 0.045
true Heidke skill score: -0.102 true Heidke skill score: 0.062
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: 0.045
true Kuipers skill score: -0.100 true Kuipers skill score: 0.065
threat score:
0.000 0.071 0.407
threat score:
0.000 0.260 0.275
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.054 -0.067
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.030 0.052
probability of detection:
0.000 0.200 0.611
probability of detection:
0.000 0.765 0.355
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.900 0.450
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.717 0.450
samples: 30 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 45.45 %coverage: 100.00