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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200006-200008

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
3
4
9
3
5
17
0
0
1
1
9
4
9
22

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
3
4
18
16
27
61
0
0
1
1
18
17
31
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
14
18
41
14
23
77
0
0
5
5
41
18
41
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
5
6
27
24
41
92
0
0
2
2
27
26
47
100

hitrate: 0.182 hitrate: 0.258
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.44 4.25 0.11
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.22 3.59 0.03
Heidke skill score: -0.227 Heidke skill score: -0.114
true Heidke skill score: -0.067 true Heidke skill score: -0.006
Kuipers skill score: -0.227 Kuipers skill score: -0.114
true Kuipers skill score: -0.082 true Kuipers skill score: -0.006
threat score:
0.000 0.167 0.111
threat score:
0.000 0.258 0.032
equitable threat score:
-0.144 -0.006 0.069
equitable threat score:
-0.052 0.006 0.017
probability of detection:
0.000 0.750 0.111
probability of detection:
0.000 0.941 0.032
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.824 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.738 0.000
samples: 22 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 33.33 %coverage: 100.00