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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200006-200008

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
4
3
15
0
1
3
4
0
0
6
6
8
5
12
25

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
4
3
15
10
13
22
45
0
0
6
6
18
17
31
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
32
16
12
60
0
4
12
16
0
0
24
24
32
20
48
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
12
6
5
23
15
20
33
68
0
0
9
9
27
26
47
100

hitrate: 0.600 hitrate: 0.409
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.88 0.80 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.83 2.65 0.19
Heidke skill score: 0.400 Heidke skill score: 0.114
true Heidke skill score: 0.395 true Heidke skill score: 0.179
Kuipers skill score: 0.400 Kuipers skill score: 0.114
true Kuipers skill score: 0.416 true Kuipers skill score: 0.202
threat score:
0.533 0.125 0.500
threat score:
0.320 0.265 0.194
equitable threat score:
0.314 0.028 0.342
equitable threat score:
0.187 0.038 0.113
probability of detection:
1.000 0.200 0.500
probability of detection:
0.444 0.765 0.194
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.467 0.750 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.467 0.711 0.000
samples: 25 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 37.88 %coverage: 100.00