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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200006-200008

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
11
4
10
25
1
1
1
3
1
1
0
2
13
6
11
30

contingency table
fcst
obs
11
4
10
25
21
28
33
82
1
1
0
2
33
33
43
109

% contingency table
fcst
obs
37
13
33
83
3
3
3
10
3
3
0
7
43
20
37
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
4
9
23
19
26
30
75
1
1
0
2
30
30
39
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.358
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.92 0.50 0.18
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.76 2.48 0.05
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: 0.037
true Heidke skill score: -0.009 true Heidke skill score: 0.077
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: 0.037
true Kuipers skill score: -0.009 true Kuipers skill score: 0.081
threat score:
0.407 0.125 0.000
threat score:
0.234 0.322 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.010 0.054 -0.060
equitable threat score:
0.087 0.051 -0.018
probability of detection:
0.846 0.167 0.000
probability of detection:
0.333 0.848 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.560 0.667 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.560 0.659 1.000
samples: 30 out of 109 samples: 109 out of 109
%coverage: 27.52 %coverage: 100.00