CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 200006-200008

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
0
0
1
1
4
2
4
10
5
2
6
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
13
15
26
54
4
2
4
10
18
17
31
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
0
8
15
0
0
8
8
31
15
31
77
38
15
46
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
2
3
20
23
39
82
6
3
6
15
27
26
47
100

hitrate: 0.385 hitrate: 0.303
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.40 0.50 1.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.11 3.18 0.32
Heidke skill score: 0.077 Heidke skill score: -0.045
true Heidke skill score: -0.072 true Heidke skill score: 0.018
Kuipers skill score: 0.077 Kuipers skill score: -0.045
true Kuipers skill score: -0.067 true Kuipers skill score: 0.020
threat score:
0.167 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.053 0.268 0.108
equitable threat score:
0.044 -0.054 -0.083
equitable threat score:
0.025 0.026 -0.022
probability of detection:
0.200 0.000 0.667
probability of detection:
0.056 0.882 0.129
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 1.000 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.722 0.600
samples: 13 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 19.70 %coverage: 100.00