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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200007-200009

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
9
4
5
18
7
5
14
26
16
9
19
44

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
11
10
21
42
7
5
14
26
18
15
35
68

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
20
9
11
41
16
11
32
59
36
20
43
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
16
15
31
62
10
7
21
38
26
22
51
100

hitrate: 0.409 hitrate: 0.353
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.00 1.37
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.80 0.74
Heidke skill score: 0.114 Heidke skill score: 0.029
true Heidke skill score: 0.106 true Heidke skill score: 0.030
Kuipers skill score: 0.114 Kuipers skill score: 0.029
true Kuipers skill score: 0.110 true Kuipers skill score: 0.032
threat score:
0.000 0.174 0.452
threat score:
0.000 0.213 0.298
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.016 0.140
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.019 0.018
probability of detection:
0.000 0.444 0.737
probability of detection:
0.000 0.667 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.778 0.462
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.762 0.462
samples: 44 out of 68 samples: 68 out of 68
%coverage: 64.71 %coverage: 100.00