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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200007-200009

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
13
5
4
22
1
3
8
12
14
8
14
36

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
16
12
24
52
1
3
8
12
17
15
34
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
6
6
36
14
11
61
3
8
22
33
39
22
39
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
24
18
36
79
2
5
12
18
26
23
52
100

hitrate: 0.361 hitrate: 0.303
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.14 2.75 0.86
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.12 3.47 0.35
Heidke skill score: 0.042 Heidke skill score: -0.045
true Heidke skill score: 0.104 true Heidke skill score: 0.031
Kuipers skill score: 0.042 Kuipers skill score: -0.045
true Kuipers skill score: 0.114 true Kuipers skill score: 0.036
threat score:
0.000 0.200 0.444
threat score:
0.000 0.218 0.211
equitable threat score:
-0.051 0.006 0.250
equitable threat score:
-0.028 0.004 0.057
probability of detection:
0.000 0.625 0.571
probability of detection:
0.000 0.800 0.235
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.773 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.769 0.333
samples: 36 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 54.55 %coverage: 100.00